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Unless the climate movement overcomes a series of political and organizational barriers the energy will remain handcuffed, in the backseat while the establishment continues driving society towards the cliff.įor 10+ years the more-alarmist climate scientists have been on an inglorious win streak, as most climate modeling has consistently underestimated the scale of the ballooning crisis. The global protests on September 24th proved, yet again, that the issue has massive, bottled-up energy. The COP hasn’t been replaced completely only because the movement isn’t powerful enough, yet. Greta Thunberg was widely ignored when she denounced the COP conferences, reducing them as “opportunities for countries to negotiate loopholes” (big enough for the super-emitters to squirm through). The climate movement has mostly moved beyond the listless COP, using it as a reason to mobilize while expecting nothing substantive to emerge from it. Consequently, the big banks that fuel the oil industry opened up their vaults and flooded trillions into Big Oil’s coffers - helping the US regain its gruesome title of #1 exporter of oil and gas, while making a mockery of Obama’s Paris “pledges.” When Trump pulled out of the Paris Accords he simply ended a farce.įor decades the UN’s COP process has been a series of political games and PR stunts, where rich nations greenwash their military and market competitiveness via the shallowest cooperation rooted in “joint statements” about fake pledges announced via platitude-ridden speeches.
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Obama then mostly ignored subsequent COP conferences - another way of ensuring their failure - until COP 21, when he was applauded for the collaboration that became the Paris Accords.īut as the Parisian ink was drying, Obama signed a provision that unleashed a torrent of oil, removing the US oil export ban that helped dam-up oil and gas production. Thus Biden’s actions at the coming COP are likely to mimic Obama’s, who famously torpedoed COP 15 (Copenhagen) in 2009. For example, Biden’s recent UN speech urged “strong” but vague action on climate change, though only months earlier he issued 2,500 new oil and gas drilling permits - including 80 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico, making oil-obsessed George W. The United States has been the biggest obstacle to COP progress, a shameful tradition that Biden seems dedicated to upholding. In 1997 the “historic” Kyoto Accords (COP 3) eventually evolved into a precedent-setting failure, triggered by President Bush’s abandonment of the treaty in 2001.
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The COP’s ongoing failure is rooted in its composition, where a small group of rich nations - steered by the big corporations within their borders - have spoiled any climate progress for 30 years. Similar rhetoric was used in 2015, where the much-celebrated Paris Accords (COP 21) was packed with pledges but void of follow-through: since 2015 emissions have skyrocketed, setting several new records while pledges were ignored. Nor is anybody likely to believe that new “pledges” from the coming COP 26 summit - touted as “humanity’s last chance” to avert catastrophe - will make a substantial impact. Nobody believes that emissions will be halved by 2030 (they’re actually on track to increase 16% by 2030). The hamstrung IPCC, however, did its best to convey urgency by warning of climate catastrophe unless global emissions are cut in half by 2030 and/or net zero emissions are achieved by 2050. Because of the consensus-based process of the IPCC - and the direct influence that oil-rich governments exert during the process - the UN body is notoriously conservative in its projections and policy solutions (often referred to as “the lowest common denominator” in climate science). Nevertheless, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) attempted to influence COP 26 by releasing its report ahead of schedule. After past conferences failed to prevent today’s unfolding disaster, it’s safe to assume that the 26th COP will follow in the ineffectual footsteps of the previous 25 UN climate summits. The upcoming UN climate conference (COP 26) will happen amid an escalating climate crisis.